Nick Ottens

Freelance analyst, editor, reporter

December 30, 2011
by Nick Ottens
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Newt Gingrich Has Imploded, Iowa in Disarray

Wasn’t this supposed to be a two man race? Now look at the Iowa polls: it’s Mitt Romney versus Ron Paul. Gingrich is nowhere to be found. I don’t mean to be schmuck but I told you so.

Let’s put the Iowa polls in a bit of perspective: Romney hasn’t campaigned in Iowa at all yet he’s on top of the field and Paul is not going to be the nominee. (Surely some Paul fanatic will find this post and claim in the comments that he’s actually, somehow the most viable contender. He’s not. Ron Paul is not going to be president. I’m sorry.)

So in other words, Iowa doesn’t make any sense right now. The socially conservative candidates—Rick Perry, Michele Bachmann, Rick Santorum—are vying for third place when they “should” be on top.

Bear in mind, the polls aren’t just very volatile; they’re not necessarily indicative of what will happen on caucus day. The caucuses are such a ridiculously quaint institution that really anyone could emerge as the victor January 3.

Which is why we love it so much.

December 29, 2011
by Nick Ottens
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Wikistrat Featured on CNN.com

CNN’s GPS blog featured an article from Wikistrat this week about the near future of North Korea.

This is what Wikistrat does for a living — not just project what’s going to happen but map different pathways. In the case of North Korea, there could be gradual liberalization under a collective leadership, “more of the same” with the younger Kim replacing his father and a military dictatorship that’s backed by China.

Readers can vote on the likeliest scenario. “More of the same” is well ahead at 40 percent though China-backed dictatorship is doing well at 35. Seems GPS readers aren’t terribly optimistic…

December 26, 2011
by Nick Ottens
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Russia’s Protests Utterly Disorganized

An article about the protests in Russia published at Foreign Policy today tells you all, I think, you need to know about the organization and cohesiveness of this “movement.”

Anarchists clustered by the gay activists, themselves within spitting distance from the radical young communists. Their elderly counterparts, with fur hats and voluminous, unkempt eyebrows (“You tell America,” one of them, an 83-year-old World War II veteran, said, looking at my press badge, “that Russia will never be its colony!”) were also nearby, flanked by the wry and rowdy hipsters from Leprozorium (“Leper Colony”), a closed and harshly meritocratic web forum famous for cultivating some of the Russian internet’s stickiest memes.

So we have die hard communists joining forces with bored hipsters trying to oust Vladimir Putin and his cabal of oligarchs while tens of millions of Russians sit at home watching wondering whether these people don’t have anything more important to do.

All around these islands was a sea of grandmothers, of the middle-aged, of the well-heeled, the more modestly compensated, and, of course, the office plankton.

Winds of change? I think not.

December 20, 2011
by Nick Ottens
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Reporting on the Death of Kim Jong-Il

When a dictator dies, it’s a good time to be a geostrategic analyst. Wikistrat actually ran a simulation about the death of North Korean leader Kim Jong-Il last year so I was able to quote a bit from their work in my Atlantic Sentinel article about the news. This was republished today in The Seoul Times.

I considered China’s role in particular for De Dagelijkse Standaard (“The Daily Standard”), a right wing Dutch blog. It’s the North’s only ally and friend and could play a key role if there is a chaotic transfer of power in the days and weeks ahead.

Anticipating the worst, I’m currently writing an article about how a Second Korean War could unfold. Stay tuned!

December 14, 2011
by Nick Ottens
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Canada Prioritizes Energy Over Climate Treaty

Wikistrat researcher Katherine Kokkinos was kind enough to help me out writing an article about Canada’s intention to withdraw from the Kyoto climate treaty at the Atlantic Sentinel.

As she points out, the country is sitting on an estimated 175 billion barrels of oil. “Canadian oil sands present huge economic opportunities.” I can’t blame the Harper Government for exploiting those opportunities instead of adhering to an emission standard that the world’s major polluters, China and the United States, have refused to commit to.