Nick Ottens

Freelance analyst, editor, reporter

January 16, 2012
by Nick Ottens
0 comments

Why Jon Huntsman Failed to Gain Traction

There’s this narrative in left leaning and non-American press about Jon Huntsman’s failed candidacy where people say he failed to enthuse conservative voters because he wasn’t a populist and didn’t embrace the Tea Party. I don’t think this is right.

Mitt Romney isn’t a populist and hasn’t embraced the Tea Party and he’s probably going to be the nominee.

The candidates that are running as populists, Newt Gingrich and Rick Perry, are losing support with their anticapitalists, un-Tea Partyesque attacks against Mit Romney. Rick Santorum isn’t a Tea Party conservative. He’s a George W. Bush compassionate conservative who doesn’t believe there’s such a thing as “personal autonomy.”

The reason Huntsman didn’t do better is because he didn’t run as a conservative from the start. He positioned himself as a right of center candidate in the belief that the country is right of center. It is. Most Americans think of themselves as either centrist or conservative. He would have done well in a general election but you don’t run a general election campaign in the primaries.

Huntsman realized this too late. Only in the final weeks before the New Hampshire vote did he start running ads that touted his very conservative record as Utah’s governor. Indeed, he may have been the most conservative man in the race given that he implemented a flat tax in Utah, reformed health care there without a mandate, enacted a school voucher program and was staunchly pro-free trade.

The mistake, I think, Huntsman made was running as an ambassador who put “country first” and not as a former conservative governor whose state was number one in job creation during his tenure. There was a real desire for a true and trustworthy conservative among Republican primary voters. None of the supposedly right wing candidates are. Huntsman is and he could have been that candidate.

Maybe he will be in 2016 if Romney loses in November.

January 12, 2012
by Nick Ottens
0 comments

US Military Presence in Europe Unlikely to “Evolve”

The new defense strategy that was unveiled by President Barack Obama last week emphasizes a strong American military presence in the Pacific at the expense of the Atlantic realm. Although the document underscores the United States’ “enduring interests” in Europe, it also suggests that the force posture there must “evolve” in recognition of a strategic shift to East Asia.

I don’t think it’s going to happen. You can read why in my article for the Atlantic Sentinel but here’s the gist of it:

As long as the United States far outspend European nations in defense and maintain an extended and permanent military presence on the continent, there is little incentive for NATO partners there to enhance their own defenses. There may be a “dwindling appetite and patience in the US Congress,” as [defense secretary Robert] Gates put it, to continue to make up for Europe’s lack of an independent defense capacity; if [Leon] Panetta believes that he has to “make clear” to Europe that he is “committed” to its security nonetheless, there won’t be any change.

There may be some change in that a combat brigade is withdrawn from Europe but at the same time, the United States building a missile shield over the continent which is a far more expensive but also a far more effective way of protecting Europe.

January 7, 2012
by Nick Ottens
0 comments

Atlantic Sentinel 2.0

3.0, actually, if you count in the original design, but the latest version of the Atlantic Sentinel is very Web 2.0 with social media integration and a lean and light layout.

The result of roughly a week of coding, the current theme is totally my own, so totally devoid of superfluous coding and functions the site doesn’t need. What’s more, this should survive further WordPress upgrades unlike the previous theme which was so heavily customized that it couldn’t bear an upgrade.

Hopefully, WordPress will soon release the ability for readers to comment with their Facebook and Twitter identities. I’m waiting for, not wanting to install an outdated and code heavy plugin, so right now, it’s just the default comment form.

December 30, 2011
by Nick Ottens
0 comments

Newt Gingrich Has Imploded, Iowa in Disarray

Wasn’t this supposed to be a two man race? Now look at the Iowa polls: it’s Mitt Romney versus Ron Paul. Gingrich is nowhere to be found. I don’t mean to be schmuck but I told you so.

Let’s put the Iowa polls in a bit of perspective: Romney hasn’t campaigned in Iowa at all yet he’s on top of the field and Paul is not going to be the nominee. (Surely some Paul fanatic will find this post and claim in the comments that he’s actually, somehow the most viable contender. He’s not. Ron Paul is not going to be president. I’m sorry.)

So in other words, Iowa doesn’t make any sense right now. The socially conservative candidates—Rick Perry, Michele Bachmann, Rick Santorum—are vying for third place when they “should” be on top.

Bear in mind, the polls aren’t just very volatile; they’re not necessarily indicative of what will happen on caucus day. The caucuses are such a ridiculously quaint institution that really anyone could emerge as the victor January 3.

Which is why we love it so much.

December 29, 2011
by Nick Ottens
0 comments

Wikistrat Featured on CNN.com

CNN’s GPS blog featured an article from Wikistrat this week about the near future of North Korea.

This is what Wikistrat does for a living — not just project what’s going to happen but map different pathways. In the case of North Korea, there could be gradual liberalization under a collective leadership, “more of the same” with the younger Kim replacing his father and a military dictatorship that’s backed by China.

Readers can vote on the likeliest scenario. “More of the same” is well ahead at 40 percent though China-backed dictatorship is doing well at 35. Seems GPS readers aren’t terribly optimistic…