I have a post up at the Dutch De Dagelijkse Standaard (“The Daily Standard”) about the “emergence of the Fourth Reich” and Germany’s future.

This is a loaded term but it has nothing to do with ideology and everything to do with strategy.

The German workforce is declining. Its economy is dependent on exports, especially to countries in Central and Eastern Europe. It’s dependent for energy on Russian gas. Why should Germany pretend that its interest point to France, the United States and NATO? They don’t and France knows it.

What Germany seeks in Lebensraum today isn’t territory but markets. To this end, the euro and American superpower are useful because they enhance trade and provide security but they aren’t vital to Germany’s interests.

They are to France’s and Poland’s. These countries want to manage Russian influence on the European continent on their own terms or reduce it altogether. They have America’s and Britain’s backing. They want the missile shield and a favorable balance of power in North Africa and the Caspian Sea region to check Moscow’s ambitions and be energy independent of it.

Europe is now moving toward adopting the German economic and fiscal model for the whole (monetary) union. It will be interesting to see to what extent France is willing to go along with this effort. The socialist and nationalist opposition there is united against President Nicolas Sarkozy’s support for German fiscal union which is entirely understandable. Make no mistake about it. Behind the incredible claims of “German domination” is a recognition in Paris that the old Franco-German power parity has ended. Germany determines Europe’s fate now. Given its geographical position and economic weight, that’s only natural. It often has, with the exception of the postwar era when it was physically divided. What we see now is a return to geopolitical normalcy.